The Case for Accelerationism and Optimism:

Effective Accelerationism (E/acc) is a movement which has gained traction on the internet in recent years in response to growing pessimism with regards to the future of humanity. Decelerationists (coined ‘decals’ by the e/acc community) argue that artificial intelligence and technological progress poises an existential threat to humanity and should be heavily regulated in order to protect our future. Contrarily, effective accelerationists believe the best path forward for humanity is through technological advancement and techno-optimism. This belief is based off of historical evidence and conclusions drawn from the laws of physics, specifically thermodynamics. E/acc’s goals, principally, are to climb the Kardashev scale, allow humans to prosper through pro-economic growth policies, accelerate development of artificial intelligence, and become an interplanetary population, all through free-market capitalism, competition, and open-sourcing. The e/acc movement is about seeing the light in a future which many believe to be dark.

Before exploring the pathway to optimal technological acceleration, let’s explore why we, as a species, should do so. History has shown, without fail, that new technology leads to a higher standard of living. We can use imperial evidence such as GDP per capita, access to education, life expectancy, and infant mortality rate to explore this further. Let’s take the most impactful revolution in recent history as an example, the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution had an undoubtedly positive impact and shaped the world we know today. Industrialization leveraged laborers through machinery brought about by technological innovation, allowing individuals to become largely more productive. In turn, enabling mass economic growth and efficiency. From 1270 to 1770, global GDP grew at roughly 0.2% year over year (JSBS). With the onset of the Industrial Revolution these growth rates skyrocketed, reaching their zenith at roughly 1.25% year over year GDP per capita growth in the mid-1800s (JSBS). Economic growth like this allows for reinvestment and growth in a variety of fields, including medicine and science. In the case of the Industrial Revolution it facilitated advancements in medicine, hygiene, and healthcare. Breakthroughs such as the smallpox vaccination, anesthetic and antiseptic surgical methods, and new concepts in sanitation and hygiene led to a large drop off in deaths from diseases, infections, and viruses. Prior to the industrial Revolution, life expectancy was stagnant, sitting around 40. Infant mortality rate was roughly 150 per 1000 births. After the Industrial Revolution, these numbers changed drastically, the infant mortality rate plummeted to 6-7 per 1000 births, and life expectancy doubled, reaching around 80 (Springer). All due to innovation made possible by techno-capital acceleration. This is why pro-economic growth policies are of paramount importance in the quest for accomplishing these goals. If an economy grows through a flourishing capitalist market, technological advancement will follow, and so will prosperity and therefore, a higher standard of living.

Artificial Intelligence will ultimately be the most disruptive technology in history. This means change, and people are scared of change, which explains the decelerationst sentiment growing in response to emergent AI becoming increasingly capable. Jobs will be displaced and people’s way of life will change over the next years. This is the main concern of most, but I believe the greatest threat with the greatest probability of prevailing in this whole AI thing is the centralization of compute power. Leaving great power in the hands of the few, inevitably susceptible to corruption, is a fast-track to an array of sub-optimal outcomes. Allowing governments or single, monopolistic corporations to control a super powerful AI likely means total control of narratives, media, lives, etc. Our efforts should be focused on giving the power to the people to choose who they support and do business with. Sufficient choice of product, free-market competition, and open sourcing, will allow the market (the people) to outcast products they believe are dangerous, not right, etc., ensuring a more democratic future.

As Jeff Bezos, a true builder and technological accelerator, said in a recent interview with Lex Fridman, the goal is for there to be trillions of humans spanning across the universe, meaning that at any time there could be a large number of Mozarts and Einsteins alive. This requires large amounts of energy. That means more efficient energy use is a must, which in turn means climbing rungs on the ladder that is the Kardashev Scale. The Kardashev Scale, proposed by and named after Soviet scientist Nikolai Kardashev, is a metric for determining the technological capabilities of a society based on its ability to harness and make use of energy. There are three main levels on the Kardashev Scale (Type I, Type II, Type III). A type I civilization would be able to harness all the energy on its planet, type II would be able to harness all the energy from its star, and a type III would be able to utilize all energy in its galaxy. Humans harness all our energy from organic-based sources like dead plants and animals, meaning we are a type 0 civilization, with a lot of leaps to make before we can be considered a type I civilization. We would likely be a lot further along by now, had we maximized the potential of nuclear energy.

Nuclear energy, currently is the most efficient form of energy production with the least amount of downsides. Nuclear fission produces super concentrated energy meaning it creates large amount of energy with a low amount of fuel usage. It is a dependable source of energy, producing a constant supply to the power grid. Nuclear power plants also operate at maximum capacity for a larger amount of time compared to other sources of energy. Additionally, there are no carbon emissions from a nuclear plant. However, there is a negative stigma around them due to accidents such as Chernobyl and Three Mile Island. This led to protests against nuclear energy, resulting in over regulation and early shutdowns of existing plants. Over regulation stifles innovation, and so there has been very few new nuclear plants in recent decades . Examples like these are why fighting regulatory capture is at the heart of the e/acc movement.

Innovative sources of energy like nuclear would allow us to continue scaling our energy production, while energy demand and consumption inevitably grows. If energy production grows globally, at 3% yearly, we can expect to reach a type 1 civilization within 100 years.

Since, type II means harnessing all the energy from our star, the sun, and type III means harnessing all the energy in our galaxy, interplanetary, and inevitably interstellar travel, is necessary. Becoming a spacefaring species is also a hedge against extinction level events on our planet and in our solar system. The recent years have been exciting for those emotionally invested in this quest. Private companies such as SpaceX and Blue Origin have innovated relentlessly, competing against each other to conquer the galaxy as efficiently as possible.

The future is bright for humanity. Technological progress has solved endless amounts of seemingly untouchable problems and it will continue to do so. Our most pressing issues can be tackled through pro-growth economic policies and competition. Those tackling the issues will be augmented by AI, done so safely if AI is open sourced. Humanity will climb the Kardashev Scale through interstellar travel, bringing life all across the galaxy. Most importantly, quality of life will improve exponentially.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjzhMWY_IOFAxXUFVkFHeOZCKQQFnoECA8QAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fjsbs.scholasticahq.com%2Farticle%2F26327-industry-impact-on-gdp-growth-in-developed-countries-under-r-d-investment-conditions%2Fattachment%2F66525.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0nCQxe1sjeMfcu2KjLwOLT&opi=89978449

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4020-4498-4_8

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